Alfred made some interesting predictions for CS in 2015. I agree with many of them, but as Mike said, it’s hard to know exactly how things will pan out. There definitely seems to be some momentum behind having CS count and getting it into schools. But will that momentum hold. What will CS look like in 5 or 10 years? Will it really get treated like Math and Science?
States could do weird things with CS, like let applications classes count. Or they could let it count, but no schools will offer it because teachers are hard to find or in the race to build up test scores, they decide it’s not worth focusing on. CS is as bound up in the issues with the whole system as anything else.
What that might mean is further bifurcation of CS offerings. Schools with wealthier students might offer CS while schools in disadvantaged areas won’t offer it. So, you’ll get a further skewing of CS in the white, male direction.
That might be one reason to argue not just for letting CS count, but making it required. What if, of the 6 or so math and science classes most students are required to take, one of them has to be a CS class? Will we ever get there? Some schools already require a CS course — a real CS course, not some information literacy course — but I think most are pretty far away from that. Even my school, which has generous CS offerings, is not ready to make CS required. Schedules, teachers, testing, etc. all present obstacles to making CS required.
So, I don’t know what to predict except that it’s going to be an interesting ride for the next few years.